Addiction to Prediction?

Helpful if unsettling January 3, 2012 blog post on the Process Maximus  blog site by Robert Speck that reflected what we can predict with high probability: more predictions about the future, many of which are wrong and soon forgotten and forgiven  as we move onto the next .

While I recommend the full article you may find the conclusion a most helpful summary:

Question Authority

Prediction should be all about risk, uncertainty, and likelihood, but what you’ll hear this week and throughout the year is a chorus of experts telling you with great certainty what the future will bring. Don’t believe them. If you’re jonesing for advice, try listening to those who are providing detail on probability, risk and trends. But know that the future is never about certainty and always about probability. When prognosticators get it right, they were just plain lucky. They may have played the odds. They may have had some truly intuitive insight that others did not. But there is never a sure thing.